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2 comments:
Vince, these are the reports by Haywood Securities on Mira Resources (MRP).
November 17, Flash update:
http://www.investorvillage.com/uploads/13157/files/Mira_Haywood_Nov172011.pdf
November 15, 2011, 27 page report:
http://www.investorvillage.com/uploads/13157/files/MIRA_Haywood_Nov152011.pdf
WRT Pennant, the numbers you bandy about are IP - those wells see huge declines - at least 70% first year (some see 70% first month). As such, your expectations for 5-6K boed are woefully misplaced. And with mostly gas weighted production, the cashflow on a boe basis is a fraction what oil weighted producers generate. Absent a significant (and unexpected) rebound in NG prices, gas weighted plays should be sold, not bought...
As for Mira, the expectation isn't for 7000 bpd production test on TSB-1 - that's what they expected (based on pre-drill assumptions) for combined production from 2 wells (ie including TSB-3).
That said, Mira will certainly see big buying interest should the well test show more than 3K bopd.
Jennings Flash Note suggests that TSB could hold btw 25-38MM bbls recoverable gross w/out including the U9 sand (which currently holds 70% of existing contingent reserves). But Mira has significantly more upside potential - the existing seismic failed to encounter the western edge of the field - which also happens to be the widest part of the field. There are also other structures independent of TSB proper, that could hold significantly more reserves, but will require appraisal wells to prove or not.
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