Saturday, July 12, 2008

Time to buy insurance to protect your shale investments

I had planned a report on a Montney shale play I recently researched and took a position in (Canadian Spirit SPI.V) but I believe there is a more pressing issue. If you don't have downside protection for your portfolio, I would strongly consider doing so next week. I am not recommending selling any shale plays as they will do just fine over the next 6 months. As I mentioned, I recently took a position in Canadian Spirit. I am recommending that investors look into DGP which is traded on the NYSE. DGP is a double-leveraged Electronically-Traded Note tied to the price of gold (so you get twice the move, both up and down when gold moves). It's like GLD on steroids. I believe the US FED will need to take over both Freddie and Fannie very soon which will put tremendous pressure on the USD. This will also pressure stocks but will ignite the gold price which is finally behaving in it's traditional role as a hedge against troubling times. The shale gas plays may feel some of the pain of the overall market but a 5-10% position in DGP may offset any losses until such time that the Forest Oil news arrives.

I have been following the gold market daily since July 2005 and feel now is the time to enter a position to protect one's investments. There will be a battle at $1,000 but the battle will be won by gold longs and I can see $1,250 by year end. This will mean a 60% return on the DGP. Consider it an insurance policy on your shale gas investments. With this policy in hand, you may be less likely to get out of your shale gas position if the market takes a major turn for the worse.

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