Thursday, June 5, 2008

A case for a further 100% gain in CQM.H

In the Wellington West research report, they have given separate valuations for each of the Junex properties and the Nicollette property is given the highest valuation of all of their properties with an assigned value of $3.50/share out of the $9.50 target price. This $3.50 works out to a current projected value (already discounted for a 70% prospectivity ratio and a 50% capital dilution factor) of $175 million for 50% of the Nicollette property. Using logic, the other 50% owned by Canadian Quantum would be assigned the same $175 million current target. This equates to a $38/share target price that would have been assigned to CQM.H if Wellington would have picked up coverage. Since Junex is today trading at 2/3 of the $9.50 target price, it is reasonable to assume that Canadian Quantum should be trading today at 2/3 of it's assumed $38 share price or $25.

At the present time, Canadian Quantum would have to rise 100% from current levels to equal the same value the market is currently giving Junex for their 50% of the Nicollette property. I would argue that CQM will base in the $25 range assuming Junex stays at these levels and is certainly still a buy today.

Of course, I am giving no value to the 3.75% WI in the Gentilly play with Questerre and Talisman or their other WI in other permits with Questerre. The market is not giving them any value either even though this is being touted by Questerre as prime real estate in the fairway.

Sometimes the hardest thing about achieving great wealth is being right and sitting tight. Those holding shares now are being right. The hard part will be sitting tight.

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