Tuesday, May 27, 2008

A repost from Stockhouse I made on Tuesday

Thought I would share the CQM.H predicament I found myself in:

After seeing the Friday press release on their Junex farm-in, I did some research on Canadian Quantum over the weekend and thought it should be valued at $3.00/share based on it's peers (Altai). I made one (the only post at the time) post on Stockhouse Sunday night more for my own sake because who reads a board with a stock ending in .H? I live stateside and knew I couldn't buy it today but would have to wait until Tuesday. I was hoping (no...praying) that it would stay undiscovered for 24 hours to allow time to get in. Before I headed off to the pool for the day with the kids, I had a 30 minute phone conversation with the person who owns 60% of the outstanding shares (about 2.7 million of the 4.6 million outstanding shares). This lady (yes it's a she) is completely "clued in" to what is happening. She gave me the background as to how Fairlady Energy owned much of the land in the Utica shale focus area in the 1990's to early 2000's but due to financial difficulties, was eventually taken over by Canadian Quantum. At one time 4 or 5 years ago, they were in discussions with Altai about a possible merger but an agreement couldn't be reached. They've tried to raise money in the past but no one wanted this land. They even got shafted by a crooked broker in Montreal on a $7 million PP that never got filled as the broker bounced several checks for some of the funds and the deal eventually fell apart.

The Nicollette property is 55,000 acres next to Altai and they and Junex will own it 50-50 once Junex drills 2 wells over the next 18 months. They also own other property in this play. They had owned the majority of land where Talisman drilled Gentilly #1 but had their land diluted down (farming out to Terrenex/Questerre) to the point where they now have a 3.75% WI in this permit and varying interests in a few others. I couldn't get all the details on all of the land since after all this was a 9:00 AM call over coffee (both her and I).I came up with my $3.00 target giving CQM.H the same $500/acre valuation that Altai currently has (55,000 acres x 50% = 27,500 net acres times $500/acre = $14 million market cap @ 4.5 million shares out = $3.00/share. This does not include the 3.75% WI on the Gentilly #1 land or other land they have.Back to this morning...so I head to the pool about 9:30 hoping to come back to see the stock still at $.30. Well you know where it finished today. I'm not even sure I would have been able to buy shares of companies on the NEX (which is a Venture listed stock that has been relatively inactive) through my Scottrade account but I was hoping to find out tomorrow. I was told they will look to get back onto the Venture (they are still fully reporting) and maybe with a $3 stock price it may be easier (not sure of all the rules).So there you have it, I identified a 10 bagger stock on a Sunday Night and due to a Holiday, had to wait 24 hours to buy it and as a result, didn't make a penny for my troubles. As I said, my target was $3 so I would hesitate to buy at this price although the 3.75% WI on the Gentilly land and their other property may move the share price higher.

One other point, there is 4.6 million shares out:

My Lady Friend: 60%
Her other half: 23%
The lucky ones who bought Friday or this Morning 17% or about 800,000 shares of float.

No need to shed a tear as I still have my life.... which is more than the men and women we celebrated today who died fighting for the freedom's we now enjoy.

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